Kajian Risiko Bencana Gempa Bumi di Kabupaten Kupang

DETHAN, Fisca Omilia (2025) Kajian Risiko Bencana Gempa Bumi di Kabupaten Kupang. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira.

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Abstract

Kupang Regency exhibits high vulnerability to earthquakes due to tectonic plate activity. Data from DIBI-BNPB (1994-2024) recorded 3 earthquake events resulting in 860 affected people, 182 damaged houses, and destruction of public facilities. This study aims to assess hazard levels based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and soil amplification factors, analyze physical-social-economic vulnerabilities, evaluate regional and community capacities, and map earthquake risks as a foundation for mitigation and resilient development in Kupang Regency. The research employs a quantitative GIS-based approach using ArcGIS 10.8 in accordance with the BNPB Technical Module. Data includes the 2017 PusGeN PGA Map, 30-meter DEM, and population, building, and economic data. Hazard analysis utilizes the Midorikawa et al. (1994) equation for soil amplification factors based on topographic classification and AVS30 integrated with PGA. Vulnerability analysis uses Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) integrating social, physical, and economic components. Capacity analysis utilizes IKD (Regional Capacity Index) and IKM (Community Capacity Index) data from the BNPB InaRISK Portal through spatial interpolation. The risk index is calculated using the formula: R = ∛(H × V × (1-C)) The results indicate that Kupang Regency has a moderate hazard level with PGA values of 0.3-0.4g and GAF (Ground Amplification Factor) of 0.917-2.031. East Amarasi District has the largest high-hazard area (5,379 Ha), while Takari is dominated by moderate hazard (45,194 Ha). The vulnerability level is moderate, with 1,886.57 exposed residents (low) but potential losses of 8,622.59 million IDR (high), consisting of 2,947.50 million IDR in physical losses and 5,675.09 million IDR in economic losses. East Kupang District experiences the highest impact with 222 exposed residents and 1,458.66 million IDR in losses. The capacity level is moderate with an index of 0.42 (IKD 0.47; IKM 0.44). Six districts have low capacity, with South Semau being the highest (0.58) and East Amfoang the lowest (0.24). In conclusion, all 24 districts fall into the low-risk category; however, East Kupang, West Kupang, Takari, East Amarasi, and Nekamese require mitigation priority due to higher hazard and vulnerability indices.

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